Africa Cup of Nations Qualification Grp. K

Liberia vs MaliAI tip, prediction & stats

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 19:00 UTC

AI tip

medium confidence

Draw or Mali win

79%

Mali are the clearly stronger side, unbeaten in four of their last five including draws with Morocco and Tunisia, conceding just 0.8 per game, while Liberia have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 matches and concede 1.8 per game. That makes a Liberia win unlikely (around 21%), so the double chance draw-or-Mali covers roughly three quarters of outcomes. Mali's disciplinary record (7.2 match yellows) also pushes cards over 4.5 to around 62%, but the double chance is the safer pick.

Locked 2026-09-28 05:42 UTC · before kickoff · claude-opus-5

Pre-match stats

per game · last 5 matches

Liberia	Stat	Mali
1.4	Goals scored	1
1.8	Goals conceded	0.8
3.2	Match goals	1.8
3/5	Over 2.5	1/5
4/5	Both scored	3/5
0/5	Clean sheets	1/5
—	xG for	1.03
—	xG against	1.48
5	Corners won	3
1	Corners conceded	6
6	Match corners	9
1.25	Yellow cards	3.2
3.5	Match cards	7.2
5	Shots on target	2.6
8	Fouls	11.8

Head to head

2011-10-08Liberia2 - 2Mali